Trenton, New Jersey 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

433
FXUS61 KPHI 041818
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
218 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation section updated for the 18Z TAFs.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. There is a limited risk for fire weather conditions through
Tuesday.

2. Multiple systems bring rain to the area Wednesday through
Thursday. Another weak system could bring some showers on
Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...There is a limited risk for fire weather
conditions today.

High pressure centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast continues to
push off shore this afternoon leading to southerly flow across
the region. With an upper level trough over the Great Lakes
advancing a cold front towards the region we`ve seen substantial
mixing across interior locations with southwesterly winds in the
10-15 mph range with gusts up to 20-25. This PBL mixing has
also mixed down some lower dewpoints and lead to relative
humidities along the immediate coast in the 50-70% range and at
as low as 25% for inland locations.

This will continue again tomorrow with winds still SW 10-15 mph
gusting up to 30mph. PBL mixing should again allow for minimum
RH`s to drop into the 22-27% range during the day tomorrow.
These parameters do support the potential spread of fires if
they ignite. Will coordinate with the Fire Partners on fuel
conditions before any issuance of another Special Weather
Statement for Tuesday as green up is in full effect.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Multiple systems bring rain to the area Wednesday
through Thursday. Another weak system could bring some showers on
Saturday.

The high pressure system is finally displaced on Tuesday, but
the continued influence from the high will keep most of the area
on the drier side. Also during this timeframe, there will be a
low pressure system well to the north in Canada with a cold
front sinking southeast from the Great Lakes region. Our NW
areas have the potential to see an isolated shower (20-30%) late
Tuesday into Tuesday night. The bulk of the rain will move in
late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and continue through
the day Wednesday as the cold front sinks southeast into our
area. This cold front then stalls across the region into
Thursday with a wave of low pressure moving northward along the
front leading to more rain on Thursday.

While some guidance still attempted to bring some convective
elements to the region, the consensus is that we`lT see
relatively low instability and limited to zero severe/flooding
threat. Overall, this will be more beneficial rain for the area
with an isolated thunderstorm possible.

The NBM Probability of total rainfall from these two systems is
about 30-50% for 1 inch or more for ares near and NW of the I-95
corridor. For areas southeast of the I-95 corridor, it is 15 to 30%
for 1 inch or more of rainfall. Given how dry we have been, flooding
concerns appear to be minimal with this largely being beneficial
rainfall for the area.

For Saturday, a weak area of low pressure will move into the region,
potentially producing some light showers. This appears to be nothing
more than a potential weekend spoiler with no significant impacts
expected at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. SW winds 10 to 15 kt with 20 to 25 kt gusts most
of the day. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. S winds 5 to 10 kt. As the winds decouple
overnight, a modest LLJ will move in and lead to LLWS and
turbulence aloft during the overnight hours. High confidence.


Outlook...

Tuesday through Tuesday Night...Primarily VFR. Some showers
possible north and west of the I-95 terminals on Tuesday Night.
South/southwest wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Wednesday through Thursday...MVFR/IFR conditions expected with
periods of rain, an isolated thunderstorm, and low clouds.
Southerly wind gusts around 20-25 kt on Wednesday.

Thursday Night...Conditions improving but lingering
restrictions possible (30-40%).

Friday...VFR. No significant weather.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds continue today to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to
25 kt as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure
over the western Atlantic and an approaching cold front. The
strongest wind gusts of 25 kt or higher will be north of Great
Egg Inlet, NJ, where a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.
Conditions will remain just below SCA criteria elsewhere.

Winds increase tonight, so the SCA for the ocean waters south
of Great Egg Inlet now goes in effect at 6 pm, and an SCA is in
effect for all ocean waters tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday...A Small Craft Advisory is in place
for all marine zones. Wind gusts around 20-30 kt out of the
south/southwest and seas 4 to 7 feet.

Wednesday Night through Thursday...SCA conditions could linger
as winds decline but seas could near 5 feet.

Thursday Night through Friday...No marine headlines expected.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ430-431.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ450>452.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ453>455.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Deal/Hoeflich/MPS
AVIATION...Deal/Hoeflich/MPS
MARINE...Deal/Hoeflich/MPS